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Suburb profile · Bay of Plenty · NZ

Cape Runaway NZ

Cape Runaway is in Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, with population 1,881.

Limited data

Thin-context

This page still helps with local context, but the evidence stack is too thin for a clean suburb-level call. Use nearby alternatives or compare mode before turning it into a shortlist decision.

Why it fits

School coverage gives the page a stronger family/livability signal. Transport coverage adds a practical access signal.

What to check

The page is thin enough that nearby alternatives should be checked before shortlisting. Higher deprivation should be treated as a local-context caution.

See what's missing → Compare suburb
Median rent
—
Census rent fallback
Population
1,881
2K local footprint
D4 vs NZ
Income
$26K/yr
Median personal income
D1 vs NZ
NZDep
Decile 10
Higher deprivation
D10 vs NZ
Schools
4
matched school context

Area prices & affordability

Opotiki District territorial authority · HUD Local Housing Statistics
Median sale price
$527K
+34.4% over 5yr
↑21.1%YoY
Lower quartile
$392K
Entry-level price
House Price Index
4,378
QV-based HPI
↑7.8%5yr
Income to buy
7.9x
Years of median income
Annual sales
85
Transactions, TA

Mortgage serviceability

at the 5.69% 2-year fixed rate
Monthly repayment
$2,444/mo
20% deposit, 30-year P&I
Repayment burden
44%
of gross household income
Stress level
Stretched
<30% comfortable · >45% severe
Years to deposit
10.6 yrs
20% deposit at 15% savings

Monthly repayment by fixed term

Floating · 6.15%
$2,569
1-year fixed · 5.26%
$2,331
2-year fixed · 5.69%
$2,444
3-year fixed · 5.86%
$2,490

A territorial-authority estimate: the Opotiki District median sale price on a 20% deposit and 30-year loan, against the TA median household income implied by HUD's income-to-buy ratio, at RBNZ new-mortgage rates. A market-wide guide, not a Cape Runaway-specific or borrower-specific figure.

Price trend

1yr -1.6%5yr -4.8%
QV House Price Index (Jan 2007 = 1000)

QV House Price Index for the Opotiki District territorial authority (monthly, Jan 2007 = 1000). A valuation-based index of price movement over time — distinct from the actual median sale price above.

Years of median household income to buy

Figures are for the Opotiki District territorial authority (as at 2026-03). New Zealand has no free suburb-level sale-price series, so these are TA-wide medians from HUD Local Housing Statistics (LINZ District Valuation Roll + Stats NZ) — a market backdrop for Cape Runaway, not a Cape Runaway-specific sale price.

Personal income

Stats NZ Census · median individual · annual
$26K personal · yr-32.8% vs Bay of Plenty suburb median
Personal income distribution (Census 2023 · annual)
$10,000 or less
231
$10,001-$20,000
270
$20,001-$30,000
363
$30,001-$50,000
327
$50,001-$70,000
165
$70,001-$100,000
102
$100,001 or more
51

Median individual income. NZ has no suburb-level household-income or sale-price data, so this is a personal-income benchmark, not a household-affordability measure. Distribution covers people aged 15+ with stated income; counts are randomly rounded to base 3.

Housing stock and tenure

Stats NZ Census 2013-2023
Home ownership over three censuses+17.3pp since 2013
2013
62% owned
2018
69% owned
2023
79% owned

40.9% of private dwellings were unoccupied on 2023 census night (holiday homes, empty rentals, and vacant stock).

Dwelling condition (occupied dwellings, self-reported)

39% damp (+3pp vs 2018) and 35% with visible mould larger than A4 (+6pp vs 2018).

Investor-specific data (gearing, investor concentration) is not published for NZ suburbs — the tenure trend above is the available investor signal.

Population outlook

Stats NZ projections · Ōpōtiki District · medium series
10,200 people · 202310,850 by 2033 (+6.4%)

Stats NZ subnational projection (2023 base, medium series) for Ōpōtiki District — the finest official projection grain available; suburb-level projections do not exist.

Crime

Ōpōtiki District · Territorial Authority
Rate · per 100k5,660
Total incidents571· 2026-05
  • Assault11921%
  • Burglary17932%
  • Theft25745%
  • Sexual Assault112%

Natural hazards

Earthquake & flood exposure estimates
Earthquake exposure
High
Proximity to active faults
Nearest active fault
1.2 km
Motu River Fault

Earthquake exposure is the distance from Cape Runaway's centre to the nearest mapped active fault (GNS Science NZ Active Faults Database) — an area estimate, not a site-specific seismic assessment. NZ's full ground-shaking model (NSHM) is not available as a queryable map layer.

Short-term rentals

Inside Airbnb
25
active listings · ~13.3 per 1,000 residents
92%
entire homes (vs private rooms)
44%
run by multi-listing operators
Investment view Estimated
$320
median nightly (entire home)
12%
estimated occupancy
$11,269
estimated annual revenue (gross)

Active Airbnb listings point-mapped to this suburb from Inside Airbnb (CC BY 4.0). Occupancy and revenue are estimates from Inside Airbnb's San Francisco model (review-rate proxy, minimum-stay assumption, occupancy capped at 70%) — they are gross, indicative, and not a guarantee of returns. Short-stay letting is subject to state and local regulation.

Schools

Ministry of Education
Total4
Students338
State4
  • Te Kura o Te Whānau-a-ApanuiComposite · State
  • Te Kura Mana Māori o WhangaparaoaComposite · State
  • Te Kura o TōrereFull Primary · State
  • Te Kura Mana Māori o MaraenuiFull Primary · State

Livability

OSM · GTFS · schools + hospitals
94/ 100 livability index

Top 6% most liveable of 1,902New Zealand suburbs.

Peer distributionstronger than 94% of New Zealand districts
WeakerTypicalStronger
Everyday access62
Public transport (14 stops)77
Schools & hospitals96

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer

Suburb-level access-density index (not an address-level walk-time score), normalised within New Zealand suburbs. Method based on the Urban Liveability Index (Higgs et al. 2019) and Walk Score — three equal-weighted domains combined with an imbalance penalty.

Investment grade

Composite · growth · yield · stability
Cgrade · 45/100 · top 55% of 65New Zealand districts
Peer distributionstronger than 45% of New Zealand districts
WeakerTypicalStronger
Capital growth80
Rental yield58
Stability9

Bar = this suburb's percentile · tick = typical (median) peer

District-level grade across New Zealand territorial authorities, combining 5-year price growth, rental yield (district median rent vs district median price), and stability (price-to-income level + affordability trajectory) via the same three-pillar method with an imbalance penalty. New Zealand has no free suburb-level prices, so this reflects your area's territorial authority. Within-New-Zealand relative, indicative only — not financial advice.

Building activity

Stats NZ building consents · 2026
Latest consents
1
1 houses · 0 units
↓50.0%YoY D1 vs NZ

Employment

Stats NZ Census 2023 vs 2018 (employed residents 15+)
Employed residents
744
Was 654 in 2018
↑13.8%vs 2018 D3 vs NZ

Full data detail

Stats NZ Census 2023 · MBIE · MoE · NZDep2023
Cape Runaway Bay of Plenty — Property Data and Demographics

Cape Runaway is a small community in Bay of Plenty with a population of 1,881 and a median age of 44. Median personal income is $26K per year. The main ethnic groups are Māori, European, Pacific Peoples. Bay of Plenty population estimates moved +0.3% in the year ended June 2025, after moving +1.1% in 2024, which should be read as a broader regional movement backdrop rather than suburb-level migration precision. The resident employment base moved from 654 in 2018 to 744 in 2023 (+13.8%), which should be read as a census-to-census employment backdrop rather than a live jobs series. Te Waihanga's December 2025 Pipeline snapshot tracked over 12,000 NZ infrastructure initiatives, with more than 2,700 under construction and transport taking 52% of projected 2026 pipeline spend, which should be read as a broader national delivery backdrop rather than a suburb-specific project list.

Livability indicators for Cape Runaway: NZDep decile 10 (high deprivation); 4 schools with avg EQI 532; 14 transport stops (14 bus).

In 2026, Cape Runaway recorded 1 building approval (1 house, 0 units), down 50% year-on-year.

Market & money
Livability signalsHeuristics
School QualityEQI 532↓ Below Average
DeprivationDecile 10↓ High
Transport Access14 stops· Some Access
Development-50%↓ Slowing
DevelopmentStats NZ
Consents (2026)1
Houses1
YoY change-50%
People & prosperity
DemographicsCensus 23
Population1,881
Median age44
Household size—
HH income · yr—
Personal income · yr$26,400
Deprivation (NZDep)NZDep23
Less deprived10/10
NZDep score1221

1 = least deprived · 10 = most deprived

EthnicityCensus 23
Māori1,641
European555
Pacific Peoples102
Asian12
MELAA6
Top industriesCensus 23
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing168
Education and Training120
Administrative and Support90
Construction60
Accommodation and Food54
Area & amenity
Local amenitiesOSM
Supermarkets0
Pharmacies0
GP / clinics1
Fuel stations1
Cafes & dining4
TransportGTFS
Bus stops14
Nearby in Bay of Plenty5
Waiotahe1,602Ōpōtiki3,786Ōtara-Tirohanga1,407Oponae360Woodlands1,053
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Current status
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Sources & freshness
Usable evidence

Cape Runaway is usable, but it still needs cross-checking.

NZ suburb pages combine Stats NZ, MBIE, MoE, GTFS, and pinned service coverage. The key difference is that some items are direct feeds, while others are fallback or snapshot layers.

RENT POSTURE
Rent is using MBIE bond data when present.

Treat current rent as a decision input, not as a guaranteed market quote.

HOSPITAL POSTURE
Hospital coverage comes from an official pinned snapshot.

This is a trusted coverage layer, but it is still a pinned snapshot rather than a live facility API.

TRANSPORT POSTURE
Transport is feed-based and depends on GTFS bundle coverage.

It is good for stop presence and local network context, but not a guarantee that every operator or schedule is equally current.

Data status
Weekly rent
Stats NZ Census 2023 · No linked local rent source
stable source · manual file · snapshot · census-cycle
Missing
Schools
MoE school directory · 4 schools matched
stable source · automated · every update · nightly
Available
Hospitals
Pinned Health NZ public hospital snapshot · No linked local hospital coverage
medium stability · mixed acquisition · snapshot · mixed
Missing
Transport
NZ GTFS bundle · 14 matched stops
medium stability · mixed acquisition · snapshot · mixed
Available
Building consents
Stats NZ building consents CSV · 2026 · Annual release series
Available
Demographic baseline
Stats NZ Census 2023 · Population, income, and demographic baseline
stable source · manual file · snapshot · census-cycle
Available
Available means a direct local source is linked. Verify means the page is using a weaker fallback or coverage-only snapshot, especially Census rent fallback or pinned hospital coverage.
Sparse locality note

This page stays indexable because Cape Runaway still carries enough real local context to help with NZ suburb discovery. It should still be read as a lighter locality brief, not as a fully covered suburb profile.

WHY IT LOOKS LIGHTER
The page is missing a direct local rent signal.

That leaves the page relying more on Census and service context than on a stronger market read.

WHAT IS MISSING
Coverage is lighter across hospital coverage.

The lighter areas here are hospital coverage, so one sparse reading should not stand in for the whole suburb story.

BEST NEXT STEP
Use this page to frame the locality, then compare or zoom back out.

Start with the region hub, compare view, or nearby better-covered suburbs before treating this page as a full market decision.

Page status
INDEXED WITH LIGHTER COVERAGE

The page still has enough real suburb context to remain searchable, but some market and service layers are too light for a full-confidence read.

HOW TO READ THIS PAGE

Use this page to frame the locality, then pressure-test the story with compare, the region hub, or a nearby better-covered suburb before treating it as complete.

Next step path
COMPARE OR CHECK NEARBY Open region hub Browse rankings
Stronger nearby reads

If Cape Runaway feels too thin on its own, use these nearby suburbs as stronger local reads before treating it as a full shortlist call.

Waiotahe most similar
similar deprivation profile similar suburb scale similar income profile

pop -300 · income +$10K · NZDep -2

Similar local read: useful for context, but still compare the actual market signals.

Detail Compare
Ōpōtiki most similar
similar income profile

pop +1900 · adds rent coverage · income +$4K

Similar local read: useful for context, but still compare the actual market signals.

Detail Compare
Ōtara-Tirohanga most similar
similar suburb scale similar income profile

pop -500 · income +$6K

Similar local read: useful for context, but still compare the actual market signals.

Detail Compare

Cape Runaway FAQ

Common questions
  1. What is the livability profile for Cape Runaway?

    QuickProperty's livability signals for Cape Runaway show: Below Average, High, Some Access. These are based on rent affordability, school EQI, NZDep deprivation index, and transport access.

  2. Where does QuickProperty get its data for Cape Runaway?

    Housing data comes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Demographics are from Stats NZ Census 2023. Schools data uses the Ministry of Education Equity Index (EQI). The deprivation score uses NZDep2018. Transport data is sourced from GTFS feeds.

  3. How often is the Cape Runaway data updated?

    RBNZ macro data updates with each deploy. Demographics are from NZ Census 2023. School EQI scores are from the Ministry of Education latest release.

Bay of Plenty

Cape Runaway sits in Bay of Plenty — explore the region.